Alastair Clark

The recent downgrades to US growth this year are fair. The sharp decline in investor business and consumer sentiment precipitated by policy uncertainty will affect the economy. We don't foresee US recession though. The US and the global economy were in good shape prior to the impacts of tariffs and DOGE – Department for Government Efficiency.

Our views in the portfolios remain unchanged: we have more in equities spread across the US, Europe and Asia and less in government bonds. There was too much bad news in global stocks following the election and ex-US markets are playing catch-up. We retain the tactical overweight in the US because there is a decent chance uncertainty recedes and attention could return to what are good fundamentals for company profits.

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